 |
| Virginio Merola |
Il 23 gennaio 2011 si sono svolte a Bologna le primarie del centrosinistra finalizzate alla scelta del candidato sindaco per le elezioni amministrative previste per questa primavera.
Con 28.363 partecipanti e 28.120 voti validi l'appuntamento si può senza dubbio considerare come un grande successo - superato di circa 4.000 unità il dato delle primarie che incoronarono Flavio Delbono nel 2008, che però riguardavano solo candidati expression of PD - after the heartache he had caused the low turnout in Milan.
The outcome of the primaries, which saw contrasting Frascaroli, Merola and Zacchiroli, resolved strongly in favor of the latter, expressed the official candidate by the Democratic Party, whose preferences 16,407, representing 58.35% of the total, have shut off noticeably Frascaroli, civic-sponsored by SEL (10,119 votes, representing 35.99%) and Zacchiroli, also a Civic (1,594 preferences, 5.67% of total).
| Candidate | Frascaroli | Merola | Zacchiroli | Blank / Null | Total |
| Ducati 467 (19.92%) | 1743 (74.36%) | 134 (5.72%) | 8 | 2352 | |
| Navile | 1629 (30.76%) | 3450 (65.14%) | 217 (4.10%) | 35 | 5331 |
| Porto | 888 (42.90%) | 1059 (51.16%) | 123 (5.94%) | 26 | 2096 |
| Reno | 784 (28.89%) | 1786 (65.81%) | 144 (5.31%) | 24 | 2783 |
| San Donato | 665 (29.10%) | 1499 (65.60%) | 121 (5.30) 21 | 2306 | |
| Santo Stefano | 1594 (53.17%) | 1219 (40.66%) | 185 (6.17%) | 37 | 3035 |
| San Vitale | 1.425 (45.31%) | 1509 (47.98%) | 211 (6.71%) | 39 | 3184 |
| Zaragoza | 1177 (48.38%) | 1075 (44.18%) | 181 (7.44%) | 28 | 2461 |
| Savena | 1220 (27.76%) | 2980 (67.57) | 210 (4.76%) | 22 | 4432 |
| special seats | 270 (63.53%) | 87 (20.47%) | 68 (16.00%) 3 | 428 | |
| Total | 10,119 (35.99%) | 16.407 (58,35%) | 1.594 (5,67%) | 243 | 28.363 |
Il risultato delle primarie bolognesi risponde e normalizza in qualche modo la situazione rispetto a Milano, quando da più parti si era parlato di un Partito Democratico travolto dallo strumento da esso stesso inventato e di un vero e proprio "effetto PD" in grado di penalizzare significativamente i candidati espressione di tale partito.
La netta vittoria di Merola in qualche modo sfata questa visione, mostrando come il traino dei partiti possa esprimersi tanto in negativo quanto in positivo e riconducendo then the outcome of the vote to choose between people and programs in the running. Indeed, as it was wrong to claim that Milan's victory Pisapia was a defeat for the PD, it is equally wrong to assume that the result will be a victory for Merola.
In a correct reading, which considers the primary a constructive search for the ideal candidate for the coalition and not an internal settling of scores, the two events in Milan and Bologna are to be interpreted only as cases in which the largest party the coalition has proposed that candidates respectively were not and were considered the best to beat the center.
course, a still relatively new and little run-in - Especially at the local level - such as that of the primaries makes the argument above slightly utopian: the primaries in one way or another are unfortunately used as evidence of power between the parties, the currents and the people of a coalition, tests of strength still bound to the rule that the loser will then be adequate to support the winner in the elections. Just to be adulterated
use of the instrument then situations can arise that produce results in which the winning candidate is one with more chance of winning the election, but the one with the most powerful apparatus behind it, whether it's a party , a leader , a movement of opinion.
The focal point is: the instrument working? The primaries, at present, are distorted or are able to serve their purpose, namely to identify the best candidate for the election?
The mobilization of the PD which has enjoyed Merola is no less worthy of the effect Vendola Pisapia which led to his victory in Milan. Pisapia and Merola have been able to count on both devices successful, albeit with different connotations and extraction. Stigmatize the first event as a victory against the established order and the second as a gray assertion of a power system actually means from a point of view, while legitimate, not entirely focused on the real meaning of the primaries. Both were Merola Pisapia is an expression of a successful system-wide coalition, in their own environment, and the very fact that the primary stresses and environments are able to help the victory of candidates from different cores of the center is a significant indicator of health and goodness this tool.
would be much more serious pollution of the voting cases that would occur in a situation where dense crowds of voters outside the coalition had infiltrators in the primaries of the center in some way to distort the result. Vista also high and unexpected contribution to the appointment of Bologna, one can say this was the case?
 |
| breakdown of the vote in the municipal district 2009 (center only) - Primary 2011 |
As you can see by comparing the votes received by the center in the first round of municipal Felsinee of 2009 and those 2011 of the primary unbundling by quarter, you may notice a general phenomenon of polarization with more references to the primary, there have been historically deployed in neighborhoods both with and against the center - and Ducati Navile one hand, and Santo Stefano and from Zaragoza 'else. The intermediate districts have rather seen a stationary but a slight decrease. The only exception is the
Savena populous district, the only one who has seen a change, no, more than a percentage point. Being a generally quite favorable to the district center, this figure is perhaps the only alarm bell on a day otherwise be considered positive for the coalition, while taking into account that, being a percentage point in this situation is convertible into approximately 350 people, these variations are within the limits of normal statistical fluctuations.
The increase from Santo Stefano and Zaragoza, representing a +1.59% of the total weight of these two constituencies in the composition of the vote, is intended as infiltration of the center of the consultations? Two factors allow
to deny this hypothesis.
 |
| results obtained by Virginio Merola broken down by constituency |
 |
| Results from Amelia Frascaroli broken down by constituency |
The first consideration, as already discussed above, is purely numerical. The increase has been observed compared to the votes of the municipal center, 2009 by St. Stephen's and Zaragoza, in terms assolulti, is estimated at around 550 units, or a lower level 2% of the total shareholding, totally inadequate in the event of a systematic attempt to sabotage the consultation.
Moreover, noting the geographical distribution of the vote, it is evident that the Frascaroli has been able to attract their approval in the two constituencies concerned, Santo Stefano also managed to obtain an absolute majority of votes. The peculiarities of the figure of Amelia Frascaroli - Catholic, linked to Caritas - then in all likelihood have attracted more voters tied to the Catholic world and on the margins of the traditional constituency of the center.
Merola's victory in the primaries, a victory so convincing in size, and so attached to the structure of victories that the center has collected over the last year in Bologna, closes certainly some doubt about the next administration, but open up others of equal capacity. It is inevitable that Merola is seen both as a personal history in terms of both candidates that he faced as an expression of the PD leadership. That's his position that the alien sympathies to all those who voted in the primaries or not because Zacchiroli Frascaroli as such, but to protest against the 'establishment party, who chose a candidate for rupture as such. Merola will be difficult to maintain these ratings, if the bond of loyalty given by the primary - the loser who wins support - not enough to ensure support of this slice of the voting population. Probably some of these votes will end up in voter turnout, or to a lesser extent, to the Movement 5 Stars.
At the same time it is evident that the Frascaroli were better able to broaden the consensus of the Catholic moderate center-left electorate: its success in neighborhoods traditionally hostile to the center proves it. However
Merola has proved largely unable to call the electorate to vote on the left, as demonstrated by the excellent performance obtained from Ducati and Navile than the city average. The profiling of the application is therefore clear: a classic exponent of the party, the strong consensus of the militants in which pesca a piene mani ma poco capace di attirare nuovi voti rispetto comunque ad alternative dal profilo nettamente più innovativo.
Saranno quindi le mosse del centrodestra, del Terzo Polo e del MoVimento 5 Stelle a definire una volta per tutte il quadro delle amministrative delle due Torri.
0 comments:
Post a Comment