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| The Cathedral of Milan and the Virgin Mary |
Milan has long been one of the most favorable in terms of elections, the center-right coalition, a real stronghold Berlusconi never in danger in electoral competitions held during the Second Republic.
The changed scenario of recent Italian politics, and in particular the creation of the third pole with the separation between Silvio Berlusconi and Gianfranco Fini and the latter's alliance with the UDC of Pier Ferdinando Casini, however, have partially changed this balance by making the administration of the 2011 competition, if not in balance in terms of the result, at least interesting because of the possibility of reaching a runoff and possible alliances that would follow.
Compared to other cities involved in the local elections, in fact, in Milan the grid is almost complete in terms of candidates for mayor is the perimeter of the coalition.
In the meantime, however, have all the names of candidates in such a way so as to assess the profile el ' electoral appeal on Milanese should not be overlooked - as we did for Turin and Bologna - the historical trend of the opposing coalitions in order to try to understand where and how the separation of the third pole of the ranks of the center will be decisive. A
this link is an Excel file containing information relating to elections Milanese 1 between 2005 and 2010, with the exception of the 2009 European elections: they have been considered for the construction time series, only elections for a single-judge offices. One exception is the presence of the elections, considered due to the strong personalization those employed by them mainly due to della nascita del fenomeno Berlusconi.
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| Confronto centrodestra-centrosinistra nel Comune di Milano (2005-2010) |
Il grafico conferma la preponderanza della coalizione di centrodestra nel comune meneghino, una maggioranza continua nel tempo e sempre - salvo l'eccezione delle Politiche 2008 e delle Provinciali 2009 - al di sopra della maggioranza assoluta, anche senza raggiungere mai dimensioni particolarmente eclatanti.
In particolare, il centrodestra predomina in città con una media del 51,44% e deviazione standard del 2,13%, mentre il centrosinistra arranca quasi dieci punti indietro al 42,52% medium and 3.62% of variance. The relative strength of the coalitions are the order of 1.2 / 1.3 to 1 between the center and the center, with scissors in the enlargement in 2008. Both coalitions have lower standard deviations, which shows a certain homogeneity in terms of turnout by voters of both sides.
The sharp declines in support that is found in the center between 2006 and 2008, compared to less marked descent of the center, however, shows how the separation of the radical reformist left to have weighed much more, in terms of consensus, of farewell UDC to Berlusconi's team. Also significant that the center, also strong weight as a candidate Formigoni, has been able to trace in part the china in 2010, while the center-langue steady for the past three consultations just under 40% of the vote.
The balance of power between parties within the coalition reflects the national trend in Milan.
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| Value-PDL League in the Municipality of Milan (2005-2010) |
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| Report PD - IdV - SEL in the Municipality of Milan (2005-2010) |
For both coalitions there is a progressive, marked erosion of the consensus of the major parties, PD and PDL, in favor of the Northern League, Italy of Values \u200b\u200band Left Ecology and Freedom. If the Northern League and Italy of Values, however, can talk about winning the consent between 2006 and 2008, the time interval in which the two teams have more than doubled the consensus, so it was not for the electoral events between 2008 and 2010, when the highest specific weight in the coalition was primarily motivated by the loss of votes of the major parties against abstention.
course the graphics do not take into account the presence of minor lists, often civic constituency that traditionally fish in the basin of the major parties, so the effect shown here is enhanced compared to the real.
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| Results obtained by the center in the Municipality of Milan (2005 - 2010) Click to view the animation |
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| results obtained from center- in the City of Milan (2005 - 2010) Click to view the animation |
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| Breakdown districts in the City Milan (2005 - 2010) Click to view the animation |
As shown in the cartograms above, the victory of the center in Milan is also well distributed from the geographical point of view: in the last five years the center has not never been able to prevail in any district town.
However, it is interesting to see how the variability of the center-left coalition - most of the other party changes over time - has in turn moved the district in which this coalition obtained more preferences: if the center-classical style Union, it obtained the best results in division IX (Stazione Garibaldi - Niguarda) e nella VI (Barone - Lorenteggio), il progressivo distacco dell'ala radicale della coalizione ha portato una perdita sostanziale di consensi nella IX e un moderato acquisto nella III (Città Studi - Lambrate - Venezia), divenuta a sua volta a tratti addirittura la circoscrizione di punta della coalizione progressista nel capoluogo lombardo.
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| Peso delle circoscrizioni nel Comune di Milano (2005-2010) |
Proprio il peso delle circoscrizioni può assumere a Milano un'importanza considerevole: sia pure in un contesto di sostanziale stabilità nel tempo, infatti, si notano tra un appuntamento elettorale and the other variations of the weight percentage of large constituencies, especially among the most deployed: the I (Old Town) for the center, and IX for the center. Applications
expressed by the two main coalitions are quite extreme when placed on the spectrum of political positions: Giuliano Pisapia, with a past as independent parliamentary ranks of the PRC Conuista, won the primary with the support of the center of the more radical coalition, and Letizia Moratti, a former education minister in the governments Berlusconi II and III, has always been one of the women more loyal to Berlusconi's line. While this leaves little room for more applications most extreme, it opens a gap at the center will attempt to fill the Third Pole presumably with a high-profile institutional candidacy. It will be important to understand how to collect the third largest center-right and center, but given even numbers, the victory in the first round of the Moratti can not be considered in the safe.
Of course this election is shaping up as the Virgin Mary and then as one of the most fought in recent years, and not just for purely local factors: Milan is the place where you are holding the trial of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, including that the so-called imminent Ruby-gate. For this reason, in this city much more than elsewhere, is likely to disappear real sense of competition - albeit important election of the mayor of the second Italian city - for now sadly come to express the usual game of the referendum for or against Berlusconi.
1: The site of the City of Milan became part of the sources of the blog
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