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| The Two Towers |
The administrative Bologna prepare to be one of the most fascinating election challenges back in 2011.
Ruled continuously by forces of the center - except as resounding parentheses 1999-2004 - since the war, now sees the political situation is at least uncertain.
Left January 23, 2011 will be held the primary coalition, who are confronted with each other, in alphabetical order, Amelia Frascaroli , a candidate supported by civic and SEL prodiana from the wing of the Democratic Party, Virginio Merola, expression the leadership of the local PD and Zacchiroli Benedict, another candidate's right-hand civic ex Cofferati.
As elsewhere, the center will wait and show, preferring to await the outcome of the primaries before proposing a candidate in turn.
Fairly unknown at the time, the behavior of the so-called Third Pole: there are voices that want a possible convergence with the center in case it is brought on behalf of Galletti, but at present there are still some news. As done for
Turin, this initial analysis will be devoted to the comparison between the coalitions in the municipality Felsineo. A
this link contains an excel on the 2005 regional elections, political, 2006, policies 2008, 2009 municipal, provincial and regional 2009 2010 as reported by the electoral service 1 of the City of Bologna: All elections the last six years in the European part of 2009, to consider only the occasions on which the election was expected to charge a single judge. Elections policies have been taken into account, although in fact are aimed Parliament elections, due to the strong connotation personalistic obtained during the II Republic.
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| Comparison center-center in the Municipality of Bologna (2005-2010) |
Even in recent years, as you can see quite clearly, Bologna has proven true to his reputation as a hub of the Italian center. Taking due account of the fact that the size and boundaries of coalitions are defined as center-right and center are variable depending of the elections, the center ranged between 50.53% and 63.66%, with an average of 57.30% and standard deviation of 5.05%, never down and then under the absolute majority. The center scored a pair of scissors instead of consensus that ranges from 28.69% to 36.34%, with an average of 33.07% and a standard deviation of 2.83%.
The relative strength of the coalitions are, however, remained almost stable - the center-about 1.75 times the center - until 2010, when this ratio fell to about 1.6.
The low standard deviation that has emerged in the analysis of the center is an indication that, regardless dall'affluenza and type of elections, this section policy still stands up quite similar results, much greater than the opposing coalition. The number of voters who choose the center is so strongly correlated to the total number of voters.
the contrary, the center is suffering from a much higher standard deviation, nearly double, to show how the voters of that political party to be somewhat more volatile in terms of voter turnout, or generally offer the most sensitive political training to which they refer. As proof of evidence of the phenomenon, you can compare the results obtained by the coalition in the municipal and provincial in 2009: although held on the same date, the two elections had about 5,000 votes - between those lists - a difference of (219,237 to municipal, provincial to 214,698) and 107,781 of those votes were those assigned to the center for the election of the mayor, representing 50.53% of the total, but well 117,320 were those obtained from the provincial center, or 57.30% of the total.
In the second analysis, in the graphs below you can see the balance of power between the major parties that make up the two coalitions, PDL League and in the case of the center, PD, IdV and SEL with respect to the center.
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| Value PDL - Lega in the Municipality of Bologna (2005-2010) |
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| Report PD - IdV - SEL in the Municipality of Bologna (2005-2010) |
Both the center-center that can be observed, after 2008, a slow and gradual erosion of the major parties (PDL and PD) in favor of the minority coalition forces (League on one side and the other IdV and SEL).
Taking the example of Italy of Values, you can see how between 2006 and 2008 training DiPietro has nearly tripled its approval and then remained stable, albeit with some fluctuations through 2009 and 2010.
The Northern League has lived instead a more prolonged period of expansion, until 2009, and remained stable in 2010.
Vendola's party finally established itself on the scene in 2009 with about 4,000 preferences, rising to 6,000 in 2010. The series is too short to allow considerations worthy of relief, but it is clear that performance of this party will be a key factor in administrative and 2011, before that, already in the primary of the center.
the progressive growth in terms of preferences and SEL League, and the stabilization of IDV, echoes the basic stability of the PDL and a real collapse of the PD between 2008 and 2009, increased from almost 50% to about 40% of the vote.
Considering the change in the balance of power between center and regional center for 2010, it is impossible not to see the 5 Star MoVement the main beneficiary of the loss of consensus and the center-left Democratic Party in general.
If the municipal elections of 2011 confirm a general trend - also dependent profile of the candidate that will emerge from the primary center coalition - it is not difficult to imagine major surprises in the race at the Palazzo d'Accursio. The other major
attributed to the contraction of the PDL and PD, and this time it's actually quite cross the coalition, and the turnout.
Considering the regional elections that open and close the series, known as the PDL is increased from 52,635 to 70,119 coalition preferences at 44,309 (holding for 84, 18% of the vote) to 59,367 (and then maintained for 84, 67% of the vote), the PD, meanwhile, rose from preferences about 95,095 to 71,950 123,611 coalition (maintaining 74.76% of votes) on 95,167 (76.99% of the votes then maintained).
Both major parties seem in line with the trend of the coalition, sign in as the towers are not in such parties themselves to have problems as the supply of coalition politics in general.
Of course, the graphs above lists exclude children, almost always civil, fishing, preferably in the constituencies of the major parties, partially mitigating flows pouring election highlighted above.
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| Results obtained by the center in the Municipality of Bologna (2005-2010) Click to view the animation |
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| results obtained from center- in the Municipality of Bologna (2005-2010) Click to view the animation |
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| Breakdown districts in the Municipality of Bologna (2005-2010) Click to view animation |
observing the division of the district town, it becomes clear that the center is able to equalize with the center only in the southernmost district of Bologna (District VI: Boxing Day) and get good results even in District VIII (Zaragoza). The center prevails without any special difficulties in the rest of the city, especially in the districts I (Ducati, inside which are the establishments of the Ducati, and many other manufacturing companies), II (Navile, the most populous city) , IV (Reno) and V (San Donato).
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| weight of divisions in the Municipality of Bologna (2005-2010) |
Viewing, finally, the trend in the whole area is a situation of relative motion, with a significant jump from 2005 and 2006 and 2006 and 2008, and a slow return to the situation in 2005 that extends along the 2009 and 2010. However, you can pick up some long-term trends related to the divisions II and IX, the most populous city, appearing at a loss and, conversely, the III and VIII that are showing signs of increase.
In general, the districts appear to be more favorable to the center, while in a discontinuous and uncertain, assume greater weight in the national composition of the electorate at the expense of traditional districts more favorable to the center.
This analysis should make us reflect deeply the center of Bologna, since it reveals a gradual elevation of the base by the leadership of the coalition parties. Although the leadership
of the center city is now under discussion in the political landscape, the situation appears in the balance: the outcome of the primaries with the possible repercussions for the balance of power within the center, the result of the movement 5 Stars, any separation between the center and the third pole and, last but not least, the possibility of early elections are things that can go crazy policy under the two towers.
1: The site of the City of Bologna joins the sources of the blog
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