Lohri Invitation Write Up

Hamburg is preparing to vote

Christoph Ahlhaus (CDU), the mayor of Hamburg

On 20 February 2011 in Germany will officially open the long-election in 2011. There are seven regions, or rather the lander, which will be involved in the voting:

• City State of Hamburg (20 February 2011) - Outgoing President Christoph Ahlhaus (CDU) - Mono CDU government after ' output Grünen coalition
• Saxony-Anhalt (20 March 2011) - Outgoing President Wolfgang Böhmer (CDU) - Government of coalition CDU / SPD
• Wuttemberg-Baden (27 March 2011) - Outgoing President Stefan Mappus (CDU) - Government Mono
• CDU Rhineland-Palatinate (March 27, 2011) - Outgoing President Kurt Beck (SPD) - SPD government Mono
• City State of Bremen (May 22, 2011) - Outgoing President Jens Böhrnsen (SPD) - Government of coalition SPD / Grünen
• Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September 4, 2011) - President uscene Erwing Sellering (SPD) - Government of coalition SPD / CDU
• City State of Berlin (September 18, 2011) - Outgoing President Klaus Wowereit (SPD) - Government of coalition SPD / Linke

In detail, three positions are dominated four of the CDU and the SPD, and observing the composition of the coalition government is seen as the CDU is present only four times, against five of the SPD and the only one of Grünen and Linke. The elections seem
then put more in jeopardy the seats of the center-dominated (SPD, Grünen, Linke) and those of the Centre (UDC), which would then play the attack, but in fact the latest polls are everywhere Coalition Angela Merkel in retreat compared to the results achieved with previous elections: after losing the majority in the Bundesrat after the 2010 elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, now risks seeing its liabilities burdened and above all be a historic defeat of the conservative stronghold of Baden-Wuttemberg, a hypothesis that can compromise the very survival of the federal government.

The first elections, however, is Hamburg. City
traditionally left-wing SPD governed by continuously from 1957 to 2001, just in that election saw the election of the exponent CDU Ole von Beust, who heads a coalition that could see, in addition to the CDU, FDP and the list also Offensive local. At the next appointment, the CDU, with a leap of 21 percentage points, completed a historic overtakes SPD von Beust allowing the formation of a government of one color, while the controversial 2008 elections have seen, is unique in Germany, the formation of a coalition of CDU / Grünen. Just the break between these two parties, with the consequent resignation of von Beust and the formation of a minority government led by Ahlhaus, led to the crisis resulted in early elections expected this February 20.

With nearly 1.8 million people (more than 2% of the entire German population), Hamburg is Germany's second largest city after Berlin in size.
within the municipal boundaries produces about 3% of GDP of the state. Above all, with its three delegates, has a weight that is about 4% of the Bundesrat, the Federal Senate German.
These elections can be considered, of course, by due proportion, and recalling the dual cities of Hamburg and land as a mixture of local elections in Milan and the size of a region of Liguria and Calabria.

Trend electoral land in Hamburg in February 2011
(Infratest DIMAP)

The trends identified by the February Infratest DIMAP sees SPD unchanged at a high 46%, while the CDU would collapse even at 25% and the FDP could even not to elect representatives to the Regional Council.

Coalitions of government
preferred by voters in Hamburg in February 2011 (Infratest DIMAP)

Although similar proportions would allow the construction of a single color SPD, the population of Hamburg, as shown by the survey, we see a government more favorable to the SPD / Grünen, reflecting the growing appreciation that the party more environmentally friendly of the Exchequer meets German nell'elettorato progressive.

Composition the Bundesrat in February 2011

Do not underestimate the effects finally at the national level on the Bundesrat: Currently, there are seven lander, for a total of 34 councilors, sided with the government, specifically five opposition ( 21 advisers) and four considered neutral (14 counselors), or expression of lander governed by parties that appear to be the majority and opposition by the government. The directors of the latter type of lander generally abstain in the vote, this means that votes in favor of the government of Angela Merkel is currently in less than an absolute majority.
Hamburg at the time è un land conteggiato nelle file della maggioranza, con tre consiglieri tutti appartenenti alla CDU. Il ribaltamento di fronte portato da una vittoria SPD o SPD/Grünen farebbe scendere a 31 i consiglieri in quota Merkel e salire a 24 quelli apertamente opposti, rendendo la vita ancora più difficile per un governo federale più che mai in crisi di popolarità.