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| The Kalahari Desert (Namibia) |
recently released, the journal Global Ecology and Biogeography , a study by J. Samson, D. Berteaux, MM McGill and BJ Humphries entitled Geographic Disparities and Moral Hazards IN THE PREDICTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HUMAN Populations, funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada and conducted by the staff of the Department of Natural Sciences at McGill University in Montreal.
After a series of studies on the migration of plant and animal species in response to climate change, the search for Samson focuses on the man, trying to build a global level, a map of human vulnerability with respect to global warming. L ' abstract Article is available at this link .
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| The map of vulnerability to climate J. Samson |
The research is based on three sets of basic data: current models for the increase demomgrafico, those relating to the development of Earth's average temperature, and those specific to CO 2 . These data were spatialized in order to capture specific trends for these parameters locally.
The map shows the results of vulnerability, highlighting on a scale of colors ranging from green (no negative impact) to red (Strong negative) effects of climate change on the planet in the year 2050. The most disadvantaged areas are mainly located in the equatorial and tropical Central and South America, ranging, in the Arabian Peninsula, Indonesia, almost the entire African continent.
At first glance, the findings of Samson challenge current theories about global warming, since they see significant impacts for humanity in the areas where we expect lower increases in temperature. But do not forget how in the study have been adequately taken into account the demographic factor is that the starting conditions.
Europe or North America have rates of growth demografica molto bassi, e, al netto dei fenomeni migratori, non vedranno in futuro crescite sensibili della popolazione; questo vuol dire che, anche in caso di problemi legati al riscaldamento globale, la domanda di risorse non sarà comunque in grado di superare l'offerta.
Al tempo stesso, nelle aree equatoriali e tropicali le pratiche agricole fondamentali alla sussistenza si svolgono già oggi in condizioni difficili: gli aumenti di temperatura futuri, anche se inferiori a quelli di altre zone del mondo, rischiano di spezzare il fragile equilibrio di quelle zone, facendo letteralmente esplodere la catena alimentare con tutti i tragici problemi che questo comporterebbe. Al contrario, le zone temperate e quelle polari sono in grado di sopportare temperature rises much more before incurring such problems.
by research data thus shows a very clear point: the major effects of global warming will affect the places and people who are less responsible, raising a genuine moral issue in the theme of climate change.
The next steps of research will of course include the inevitable aging of the model, or through the use of any new population projections and climatological conditions, both through the inclusion of more specific geographical, social and policy at national level in order to improve ' accuracy of the final result, with the aim of building a real quantity index of internationally recognized climate vulnerability that can be a real reference in future international agreements on climate.
What you are trying to reach, then, is an assessment of climate change that is the result of an interpenetration of climatological and anthropological criteria. If this goal from the humanitarian point of view can not be faulted, however, the question that raises is very deep: it is proper to assess climate change and global warming in particular, in relation to the effects they have on humans? It is correct to think that increases in temperature are not influential - or even beneficial - for example in terms of production are non-agricultural problems, or issues of gravity, however, lower than that - although climatological children - who have a severe impact on quality of human life?
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