Coaxial Cables Bikini

: Torino

The Mole

Among the cities where in 2011 local elections will be held in Turin is probably the one where the electoral machine is moving more delay.

After forfeit the Rector of the Polytechnic, Perfume, has unleashed a whirlwind of real names in the center that only these days is focusing around the names Fassino, Placido, and Gariglio Ardito, pending and Tricarico a name as yet unknown proportion in SEL.
The center seems to oscillate between Coppola and the Cup, but now his strategy is extremely reliable, as if also waiting for the primary center at the time fixed for February 13.

This provides omit in this first analysis of the effect, if any candidate, to focus on coalition forces in Turin. A
this link is an excel with the results of regional elections in 2005, 2006 policies, municipal 2006, 2008 policies, provincial 2009 and 2010 as reported by the regional electoral service ¹ Turin Municipality: All elections of the last six years with the exception of 2009 European, just to consider only the elections where you point to the election of a single judge loads. Given its strong personalistic political elections in the Second Republic allows, from this point of view, comparable to the elections.

Comparison
center-center in the town of Turin (2005 - 2010)

The picture that emerges is clear enough: Turin is a city center. In the elections considered the center ranged between 46.14% and 63.62% (average 54.95%, SD standard 6,91%), mentre il centrodestra ha ottenuto una forbice che spazia tra il 32,16% ed il 42,47% (media 38,37%, deviazione standard 3,45%).

È bene evidenziare il fatto che per consultazioni elettorali differenti i concetti di centrodestra e centrosinistra sono a loro volta differenti: la geometria e la composizione delle coalizioni è variata più volte nel corso degli anni, e con essa la presenza o meno delle cosiddette terze forze.

Facendo i dati riferimento ai risultati ottenuti dalle liste e non dai candidati, la bassa deviazione standard che emerge osservando i dati del centrodestra permette di trarre una prima importante conclusione: i risultati di tale coalizione restano grosso modo sempre gli stessi indipendentemente dalla competizione elettorale. Questo significa che il numero di votanti della coalizione di centrodestra, a Torino, è fortemente correlato con il numero dei votanti in generale, e l'affluenza non ha pertanto grossi impatti su questa parte politica.
Al contrario, è evidente che il fenomeno del non-voto - così come il diverso richiamo alle urne che suscitano competizioni di tipo differente - provoca di volta in volta delle oscillazioni piuttosto sensibili sulla coalizione di centrosinistra, ribadendo il cronico problema che attanaglia questa parte politica da diversi anni a questa parte, ovvero la capacità o meno di portare alle urne i propri simpatizzanti.

Se si osserva nel dettaglio il rapporto tra i partiti coalition, it becomes interesting to measure the progress on the one hand and between PDL League, and the other one between PD and IdV SEL.

Value
PDL-League in the City of Turin (2005 - 2010)

Report PD-IDV-SEL
in the City of Turin (2005 - 2010)

In the main we see both sides, after 2008, to a sudden and violent decline of the major parties (PDL and PD) in favor of the minority forces (from League one hand and IdV and SEL the other).
The cause behind this phenomenon is obvious: If you look at the trend IDV there is a violent break between 2006 and 2008 with a shift from less than 10,000 votes more than 30,000 preference, between 2008 and 2010, However, sympathy for the Di Pietro's party remained on a level stable. A similar, even in terms of numbers, can be made for the Northern League, while the Left Ecology and Freedom presents a time series is too short to be taken into consideration in this analysis.
The stability of the League and IDV, compared with an increase of their weight in the coalition, it implies that there is a diaspora of consensus in the PD and PDL, while it compensates a livello di rapporti di forza tra le coalizioni, dall'altro muta in maniera molto evidente la composizione delle coalizioni stesse.
Ancora più importante, questa analisi permette di capire come il principale nemico di PD e PdL sia l'astensionismo. Il cannibalismo che Lega e IdV hanno esercitato all'interno delle rispettive coalizioni non è legato ad un vero e proprio travaso di consensi, ma alla capacità di mantenere - senza accrescere - il proprio elettorato mentre quello dei partiti "maggiori" calava o si disperdeva su altre formazioni.
Naturalmente non bisogna dimenticare un certo margine di errore nei risultati ottenuti, dovuto alla presenza o all'assenza di liste civiche all'interno delle coalizioni, liste che storicamente "pescano" more evident in larger parties. The trend is undeniable, however.

results obtained from center-
in the City of Turin (2005 - 2010)
Click to view the animation

results obtained from center-
in the City of Turin (2005 - 2010)
Click to view the animation

Breakdown constituencies in
City of Turin (2005 - 2010)
Click to view the animation

Looking at the scenario from a national point of view of geography, we see how the center is able to prevail only in the most central area of \u200b\u200bTurin (District I : Center - crosses) and to be close to balance in the District VIII (San Salvario - Borgo Po - Cavoretto). In the rest of the city center prevail without too much difficulty, especially in its strongholds of division II, V and X.

weight of divisions in the City of Turin (2005-2010)

Considering, finally, the relative weight of divisions, we capture some hints of trend - the rise and fall of the VI to VIII all - a view, however, substantially stable, a sign that the differences in turnout related to the different electoral competitions and developments affecting the phenomenon of abstention in a fairly uniform at the city level, and fairly unrelated election on the composition of the sample formed by the inhabitants of a given area. You get so
an apparent contradiction: the variability of the vote has greatest impact on the left, yet the size of constituencies remains unchanged, suggesting a proportional participation in spite of the various districts of Turin present results also very different. You do not see significant decreases in substance representing the constituencies of the Left in conjunction with the elections that have given the worst outcome for the progressive coalition.
In fact, these two data allow to better frame the phenomenon of abstention relatively Turin area: there is a problem - at least not the main problem - from the historical basis of the party, but on the contrary there is much disappointment the so-called middle class, progressive, people on the left not so much out of revenge, social or historical necessity, but for the ideal of a better world, more eco-friendly, fairer, more meritocratic.
A band of the electorate that is not sold yet geographically large enough to determine the outcome of the heavily next electoral contest.



1: The site of the City of Turin becomes part of the sources of the blog